Leaving CERN? Financial implications.

CERN is at present one target for the Ministry of Education's saving on basic science in Sweden. To leave CERN, the European Laboratory for Particle Physics that is now the leading laboratory in its field in the world and a real European success, would first of all mean that Swedish Science will be seriously down-graded. When other countries are lining up to join, Sweden would leave the laboratory where the focus is on one frontier of basic science, where research is made on how matter is built up.

The Ministry's focus is on the Swedish financial contribution to CERN, estimated at about 125 MSEK for 1998 by the Swedish Natural Science Research Council (NFR). However, taking a national and more global perspective, the 125 M is a gross overestimate of the saving Sweden would make if leaving CERN. The following facts have to be taken into account:

1. Industrial orders to Sweden from CERN 1997 was 9.25 MCHF (services 1.14 MCHF and supplies 8.11) or about 50 MSEK. Some of these orders, as witnessed by several of the companies e.g. at a meeting at NFR earlier this year[1], are very important because CERN is like a show-place for many new high-tech products and a CERN order gives many follow-ups. A conservative estimate of that effect is 50% of the order value. Earlier estimates of this effect has given a factor of 3 for high-tech products. The total value for Sweden of the industrial orders is therefore about 75 MSEK. In the pipe-line is one 1999 order in the area of information technique with a value of about 25 MSEK, a development contract with Ericsson and a five year contract with the painting company Kumlins. In case Sweden leaves CERN these orders will be cancelled.
2. CERN employs people. In the research area it gives scientists the possibility to spend some years at the world leading laboratory. In other areas it gives employment possibilities that are very developing and often give unique experineces. At present some 45 Swedes are on the CERN pay roll, the majority non-research personnel. If Sweden leaves CERN, some of these will have to leave their employment soon. There will be no new Swedish staff employed. The long term effect of no new recruitment, a combination of employment possibilities and missing experiences, is estimated at about 10 MSEK per year.
3. CERN has a fellowship programme for postgraduates, a summer student programme and a technical student programme for undergraduates. These programmes together represent for Sweden an amount of about 5 MSEK per year.
4. Sweden will, in case of leaving CERN, have a debt to the CERN pension fund. This has been estimated at 2.71 % of 480 MCHF or about 70 MSEK. Over ten years about 7 M per year.
5. The value of the assets at CERN are estimated at about 1000 MCHF. If leaving, Sweden would lose its 2.2% share of this equipment or about 120 MSEK. Over 10 years this makes about 12 M per year.

Comparing the 109 M to the fee of 125 M the conclusion to draw is that the saving on a national level is almost reduced to nothing. The new Minister of Education should consider that.

[1] Meeting 26 March 1998 at NFR, Stockholm. Aim: Possibilities to increase industrial return from CERN to Sweden. Representatives of NFR, NUTEK, Ministries of Education and Industry, Swedish Trade Council and companies were present. Mr Bo Vikstršm, director of the small electronics company Xicon in Malmš, said that the order for a CERN experiment has opened new and large markets for them. Jšrgen Bodin ABB Industrial System said that CERN for them is what is called a 'beta-tester', i.e. new systems can have their last tests made at CERN because of CERN's unique competence. CERN is therefore a very important partner. Tomorrow's technology is often based on today's techniques in basic science.